The global
output of germanium resource was about 128 tons in 2012, of which, the output
in China was about 90 tons with the proportion of 70.3%. Although the United
States is rich in germanium resources, the output is extremely small and this
country relies heavily on imports.
There are
35 germanium ore-fields have been proven in China, which own the germanium
metal reserves of about 3,500 tons and the prospective reserves of
approximately 9,600 ton of metal. The germanium reserves in Yunnan Province
account for 33.77% all over China, and Inner Mongolia is also rich in germanium
resources.
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China's
germanium resources supply market presents the following three characteristics:
1. The
supply side is an oligopolistic market. The germanium output of Yunnan Lincang
Xinyuan Germanium Industrial Co., Ltd., Xilingol Tongli Ge Refine Co., Ltd.
(brown coal mining), Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen
Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co., Ltd. (zinc smelting by-products) is about 70
tons, accounting for 90% of China's total supply volume. (Mengdong Germanium
Industries has not formally put into production)
2. The
supply has seasonal characteristics. The supply volume of Inner Mongolia is
about 20 to 30 tons; affected by the climate factors, the germanium output is
mainly concentrated in March to November.
3. Small
market scale and strong operability. Under normal circumstances, the 10 tons of
germanium output of Chihong Zinc & Germanium specifically supplies for
Kunming Infrared Optics (KIRO); deducting Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium
Industrial's annual output of 30 tons, the overall supply of spot market is
only 40 tons. If calculated at the price of CNY 10,000 / kg, the market scale
would be only CNY 400 million; therefore, the market operability is very
strong.
In 2012,
China's germanium output was 90 tons; according to the output estimate of major
enterprises, the total supply volume of China's small and medium germanium
concentrates was about 15 tons. From the spot market, we learned that small and
medium germanium concentrate was almost blank, and we estimated that the
national stockpiling volume would be about 15 tons.
Huidian
Research believes that the stockpiling of the State Reserve Bureau is
conductive to decelerating the resource consumption speed, and also can help to
ease the large price fluctuation, which will be helpful to the long-term
development of germanium industry.
Especially
for the germanium metal with dominant native resource advantages, the
stockpiling not only can affect the international germanium price, but also can
enhance China's pricing power. The stockpiling is a long-term behavior; the
State Reserve Bureau is expected to continue the stockpiling in 2013. We
estimated that the stockpiling volume will be about 10 tons, which equals to
the market supply reduction of 11%. By 2017, the stockpiling volume will
continue to increase, and the market supply volume will be reduced to 53 tons.
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